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英美央行行长宣布经济衰退结束  

2009-11-10 21:30:45|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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Anglo-American central bank governors

announced that the economic recession has ended

 

 

今天大西洋两岸的中央银行宣布经济危机即将结束,尽管英格兰银行的行长默文·金(Mervyn King)警告称,复苏的劲头仍旧“高度不确定”。

金在跨党派国会财政委员会上对下议院议员宣称,他相信在这代人经历过最深的经济衰退之后,英国经济经可能已经开始增长。他说:“去年年末和今年年初经济活动急剧下降之后,现在有迹象表明,在第三季度增长将开始恢复。”然而他也警告称,复苏的劲头和持续性将会高度不确定。

在美国,激动人心的经济数据使得美联储主席本·伯南克评论说,美国的经济危机“很可能要结束了”。伯南克在华盛顿布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)对观众表示,预测团体已经达成一致:美国经济正在复苏,在第三季度经济将会增长。然而他补充道,失业率将会缓慢下降,“很明显,那是需要严重关切的问题,也是为什么尽管从技术的观点看危机很可能已经结束,但是在相当长的时间内经济看起来仍然疲弱的原因之一。”

金发出了明确的信号,他也仍旧担心,并暗示他正考虑采取激进的措施降低支付给英格兰银行的储备金利率,以促使各银行借出现金,这些现金是由量化宽松政策产生的。他说:“这样做的可能促使各家银行各自更加努力地尝试把一些储备转化为其他资产。”

英格兰银行关注的是,尽管它推出1750亿英镑的债券回购计划已经为金融部门输入了现金,但是银行仍旧削减了对外贷款。在金发表评论之后英镑大幅下跌,兑美元的比价下跌了1%,因为投资者认为在该银行8月份新闻发布会上提出的这个行动可能暗示进一步的量化宽松政策。RBC资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)的里查德·麦克盖尔(Richard McGuire)说:“金重提这个话题强调了英格兰银行的严肃意图,这样做也提高了在10月采取这种行动的可能性。”

金也对前货币政策委员会成员布大卫·布兰奇福劳(David Blanchflower)进行了强烈的回击,争论的焦点在于就英格兰银行怎样应对史上最严重的衰退。金否认在货币政策委员会用 “铁拳”压制不同意见。“你们可以自己决定我是否使用了铁拳。”金说道,并强烈要求议员们查看该委员会的投票记录,他指出包括上个月在内他已经三次“寡不敌众”了。

5月份离开货币政策委员会的布兰奇福劳认为经济即将陷入衰退,在整个2007年多次赞成消减利率,并从那时开始就指责金和其同事没能及时掌控局面。在上周的《新政治家》(New Statesman)中,他表示货币政策委员会因为“群体思维”而举步维艰。今天金表示布兰奇福劳的说法是不明智的,他对这些事件的回忆是不同的。

布兰奇福劳保留了对几名货币委员会成员最严厉的批评,因为上个月他们拒绝支持金增加英格兰银行的量化宽松政策到2000亿英镑的尝试。达特茅斯学院的学者把凯特·巴克(Kate Barker)、查尔斯·比恩(Charles Bean)、斯潘塞·戴尔(Spencer Dale)、保罗·费歇尔(Paul Fisher)、安德鲁·森唐斯(Andrew Sentance )和保罗·塔克(Paul Tucker )称为“软弱六人行”。巴克质疑这个针对议员们的指责,认为鉴于该委员会通过QE新注入资金总计1750亿英镑也大幅削减了利率,“很难把我们当中的任何一个人描述成软弱。”

副行长宾(Bean)也接受了质询,回答了关于布兰奇福劳宣称货币政策委员会的一些成员笨手笨脚,不能快速地改变立场的问题。“在我的职业生涯中,我曾经被人批评得比这还要糟。”宾回答道。

一名议员问金,当“软弱六人行”投票增加QE预算500亿英镑而不是行长支持的750亿英镑时,他的权威是否因为上个月货币政策委员会的决定而受损。“我将每月继续向我认为对的方案投赞成票。如果不是那样,我也不能继续作干我的工作了。”

财政大臣阿利斯泰尔·达林(Alistair Darling)今天也表示经济衰退正在缓和。他告诉BBC电台,他仍旧相信到今年末英国的经济将会恢复增长。早些时候发布的官方数据显示通货膨胀——用英格兰银行监测的消费者物价指数来衡量——在8月又一次跌落到1.6%。这是自2005年以来最低的水平,但仍高于分析家的预期。

金预测价格在一段时间内仍旧会不稳定。他说:“在未来的6个月,通货膨胀有可能不稳定,在上升至高于目标之前,最初会跌得比现时的1.6%水平还低,远低于2%的目标水平;这种不稳定反映了‘底线效应’,还有去年削减增值税的逆转。”

在雷曼兄弟破产一周年之际,金也警告货币政策委员会要当心华尔街银行破产的影响将会长期存在于金融部门中,因为银行被迫拨出更多的资金作自我保护,免受另一场危机所害。

金提醒道:“一年前的今天雷曼兄弟破产,由此引发的金融危机的后果将会是深入和长久的。这不是说增长不能恢复。在一些国家,增长已经恢复,而在其他国家也将会恢复。但是我们重塑金融部门的道路将会是漫长和艰辛的。”

Recession over,say central bank chiefs on both sides of Atlantic

·King warns strength of upturn remains uncertain

·Bernanke says forecasters agree US is in recovery

·Comments (18)

·Buzz up!

·Digg it

·Graeme Wearden, Heather Stewart and Andrew Clark

·guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 15 September 2009 21.23 BST

·Article history

Mervyn King at an earlier appearance before the Commons treasury committee. Photograph: PA

Central bankers on both sides of the Atlantic declared the recession to be over today, though Bank of England governor Mervyn King warned that the strength of recovery remains "highly uncertain".

King told MPs on the cross-party Treasury select committee that he believes the UK economy may already have started to grow, after the deepest downturn in a generation. "Following a precipitate fall in economic activity at the end of last year and the start of this, there are now signs that growth has resumed in the third quarter," he said. However, he warned that the strength and sustainability of the recovery was "highly uncertain".

In the US, encouraging economic data prompted the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke, to remark that the country's recession is "very likely over". Bernanke told an audience at Washington's Brookings Institution that there was agreement among the forecasting community that the US is in a recovery, and that the economy will grow in the third quarter. However, he added that unemployment would be slow to come down, saying: "Obviously, that's a very serious concern, and that's one reason why even though from a technical perspective the recession is very likely over at this point, it's still going to feel like a very weak economy for some time."

King sent a clear signal that he too remains anxious, hinting that he was considering taking the radical step of lowering the interest rate paid on reserves held at the Bank of England to persuade banks to lend out the cash created through quantitative easing. "What it would do is perhaps make the banks work a little bit harder to try individually to convert some of those reserves into other assets," he said.

The Bank is concerned that despite its £175bn bond buyback programme, which has pumped funds into the financial sector, banks are still cutting back on lending. Sterling fell sharply after King's comments, losing as much as 1% of its value against the dollar, as investors bet the move, mooted at the Bank's August press conference, could signal further quantitative easing. "That King is revisiting this topic underlines the seriousness of the Bank's intentions and, in so doing, raising the odds of just such a move being taken in October," said Richard McGuire of RBC Capital Markets.

The governor also fired a fresh salvo in the row with ex-MPC member David Blanchflower about how the Bank has handled the worst downturn in a generation, denying that he suppressed dissent on the monetary policy committee with an "iron fist". "You can decide for yourself whether I do or do not have this iron fist," King said, urging MPs to look at the committee's voting record, and pointing out that he has been outnumbered three times - including in the last month.

Blanchflower, who left the MPC in May, repeatedly voted for interest rates to be cut throughout 2007, believing a recession was imminent, and has since accused King and his colleagues of failing to grasp the situation until too late. In last week's New Statesman, he said the MPC was "hobbled by groupthink". King said today that Blanchflower's statement was "unwise" and that his recollection of events was different.

Blanchflower saved some of his harshest criticism for the MPC members who refused to support King's attempt to increase the Bank's quantitative easing programme to £200bn last month. The Dartmouth College academic dubbed Kate Barker, Charles Bean, Spencer Dale, Paul Fisher, Andrew Sentance and Paul Tucker the "feeble six". Barker disputed this charge to MPs, arguing that it was "pretty difficult to describe any of us as feeble", given that the committee was creating up to £175bn of new money through QE as well as slashing interest rates.

Deputy governor Bean was also questioned about Blanchflower's claim that some members of the MPC were "plodding" and incapable of changing their position quickly. "I've been called worse in my professional career," Bean said.

One MP asked King whether his authority had been damaged by last month's MPC decision, when the '"feeble six"' voted to increase the QE budget by £50bn, not the £75bn favoured by the governor. "I will continue to vote for what I think is right, month in and month out," King said. "I couldn't continue doing this job if that wasn't the case."

Chancellor Alistair Darling also said today that the recession is easing. He told BBC Radio that he still believes that the UK economy will have returned to growth by the end of this year. Official figures released earlier showed that inflation, measured on the consumer price index targeted by the Bank, fell again to 1.6% in August. That was the lowest level since 2005, but still higher than analysts had expected.

King predicted prices would remain unstable for some time. "Over the next six months, inflation is likely to be volatile, initially falling further below the 2% target from its present level of 1.6%, before rising above the target," he said. "That volatility reflects base effects as well as the reversal of last year's VAT cut."

On the first anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, King also warned that committee that the impact of the Wall Street bank's bankruptcy would continue to reverberate through the financial sector for years, as banks are forced to set aside more capital to protect themselves from another crisis.

"The consequences of the financial crisis, sparked by the failure of Lehman Brothers exactly a year ago today, will be pervasive and long-lasting. That is not to say that growth cannot resume. In some countries it already has, and in others it will. But there is a long, hard road ahead to restructure our financial sector," King warned.

 

 

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